Special Edition: Geoengineering – A High-Stakes Bet in the Climate Crisis Arena

Dear all,

This is a special edition of ESG on Sunday, focusing on the engineering and technology currently developed by the fossil fuel industry to continue activities they arguably should not. It is a thrilling piece, offering information you usually don't come across, and serves as yet another example of how your tax money finances oil and gas companies and financial institutions, all while politicians support what some view as extortion.

The controversial gamble….

From the onset of the industrial era, humanity has been emitting vast amounts of greenhouse gases into the air, driven by industrial growth and technological progress. This has led to significant alterations in the Earth's atmosphere, resulting in increased global temperatures, more severe droughts, and heightened storm activity, all of which pose a threat to continued human development. As the magnitude of these risks became evident, global leaders and multinational corporations committed to limiting the rise in average global temperatures to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, for a few months last year, the planet momentarily exceeded this critical marker, catching many experts off guard.

Expectations now suggest that by the century's close, global temperatures could climb by up to 4 degrees Celsius (over 7 degrees Fahrenheit). This alarming projection has brought the concept of geoengineering, now more palatably referred to as “climate interventions,” into the spotlight. Proponents argue that such measures could provide crucial breathing space at a time when the global demand for energy is surging and the transition away from fossil fuels is lagging. Yet, these initiatives, such as the large-scale carbon capture facility being developed in Texas by Occidental Petroleum, have sparked debate. Critics argue that while some interventions may appear beneficial, they risk unleashing unforeseen consequences that could disrupt weather patterns or exacerbate human hardship.

Questions are being raised about the wisdom of tampering with environmental processes on such a scale without a full comprehension of the potential fallout. The conversation is further complicated by the fear of unilateral actions by independent entities, as illustrated by Mexico's prohibition of solar radiation modification following unauthorized experiments by a Californian startup.

Meanwhile, the fossil fuel industry continues its expansion, defying the International Energy Agency's warnings that new projects are incompatible with efforts to curb global warming. According to the Global Energy Monitor, approvals for new oil and gas fields are surging, with an anticipated increase in reserves by nearly four times by 2030. This expansion persists despite the IEA's projection that fossil fuel demand will peak this decade. Notably, the United States has led in sanctioning new reserves, exemplified by the contentious Willow project in Alaska. This development has placed the Biden administration at the crossroads of environmental advocacy and industry demands.

Globally, nations like Guyana and the United Arab Emirates are also significant contributors to new fossil fuel projects. Industry leaders assert the necessity of ongoing exploration and development to sustain supply and facilitate a transition to a future with reduced emissions. However, the exploration of new fields, including significant finds in regions with little prior production history, underscores the industry's intent to maintain, if not expand, its footprint, despite the environmental implications.