Week 20: From Symbolic Disruptions to Real Damages

Dear all,

What role does the Sun play in all this? Is it symbolic or more? The largest geomagnetic storm since 2003 hit last Friday and might signal the start of a more intense period of solar activity than anticipated. In the days following this massive storm, additional bursts of energy and light occurred, creating stunning auroras (known as borealis in the Northern Hemisphere and australis in the Southern) visible far beyond their usual range. These storms continue to cause widespread radio blackouts and disruptions to normal energy patterns across the Americas. The storm's immense power was felt globally, offering rare aurora sightings much further from the Earth's poles than usual. The current solar cycle has outpaced scientists' expectations, with sunspots increasing more rapidly and earlier than predicted. Sunspot activity has already exceeded the peak of the previous weaker cycle, which began in 2008. Initially, the scientific consensus was that the current cycle wouldn't peak until 2025.

While some irregularities in electrical wave patterns are expected, extreme deviations were observed simultaneously across the US, according to data from Whisker Labs Inc. This marks the first time such a powerful solar storm has been tracked in real-time nationwide. Data from smart-home sensors monitoring electric surges and power quality showed the disturbance affecting over 50 million homes.

Symbolic economic costs. Wildfires are once again raging in Canada’s oil sands region, with fires near the main city threatening petroleum production. Nearly 20,000 hectares (49,000 acres) were declared out of control by Alberta Wildfire on Thursday, burning several kilometers from Fort McMurray, the heart of the oil sands industry. This region in Alberta is crucial for mining thick bitumen deposits, which are then refined into synthetic crude oil. The growth of this industry has made Canada the fourth-largest oil producer globally, supplying 6% of the world's oil. In 2023, the oil sands produced 3.2 million barrels per day, as reported by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Rystad Energy, a consultancy, warned that if the fires worsen, 2.1 million barrels per day of marketable output could be at risk, or 1.7 million barrels per day if maintenance outages are included. The US is the largest importer of Canadian oil. Recently, the price gap between Western Canadian Select and West Texas Intermediate crude narrowed from $14.60 to $13.81 per barrel. “If we did see a material supply impact metastasise out of these wildfires, then that could tighten the market a little more, and there could be upward price pressure potential,” said Thomas Liles, vice-president of upstream research at Rystad.